The 20 Cars Most Likely to Fail Their Next MOT

Based on 40.7 million DVSA MOT tests

If you own a car that’s eight or nine years old, you’re right in the “danger zone” for MOT failures. As we head towards 2026, millions of these cars will be booked in for another test – and some models are far more likely to fail than others.

This article is part of a wider series of data‑led MOT studies from Pre MOT Check. Each piece is built from the same underlying dataset that powers our car‑specific MOT statistics pages, and they’re designed to answer questions journalists and car buyers genuinely have – not just to fill a content calendar.

At Pre MOT Check, we’ve built our platform on top of the DVSA’s anonymised MOT data. For this study, we analysed 40.7 million MOT tests carried out in 2023 across 12,425 unique vehicle profiles (make + model + year). From that dataset, we’ve identified the 20 mainstream cars and vans most likely to fail their next MOT – and what you can do if you own one.

This isn’t about shaming particular brands. It’s about giving owners of higher‑risk vehicles a clear, data‑driven heads‑up so they can prepare properly, avoid nasty surprises, and keep their cars safe on the road. If you’d like to see the flipside – the cars that sail through their MOTs – read our guide to the most reliable used cars at MOT (age 6–9 years).

How we built this list

This article uses the same methodology as our other flagship MOT data studies. The idea is simple: take the huge MOT dataset behind Pre MOT Check, then surface it in plain English so that a typical car owner (or motoring journalist) can act on it.

For this particular piece, we:

Used the DVSA’s anonymised MOT test result dataset for 2023 (cars and light vans).
Grouped tests by make, model and registration year – this gives us a “vehicle profile” like “Vauxhall Vivaro 2014”.
Focused on vehicles aged 8–9 years at the time of test (so mostly 2014–2015 registrations).
Applied a minimum sample size of 2,000 MOT tests per vehicle profile to avoid “weird” outliers.
Ranked those profiles by fail rate percentage and took the worst 20.

In this age band, the average MOT fail rate across our database is about 16%. The cars in the list below are closer to 27%, so they’re roughly twice as likely to fail as the typical 8–9‑year‑old car.

You can look up any of these vehicles – and many more – in detail on Pre MOT Check. For example:

Each of those pages shows the model’s pass rate, test count, top failure reasons and a tailored pre‑MOT checklist. You can also browse the full database of cars and vans on our MOT pass rate by make and model page.

The 20 cars most likely to fail their next MOT

These are the 20 worst‑performing cars and vans in our dataset among 8–9‑year‑old vehicles, sorted by fail rate.

Fail rate = percentage of MOT tests in 2023 for that specific make/model/year that resulted in a Fail.

Rank	Make	Model	Year	Age at Test	Fail Rate	Tests
1	Vauxhall	Vivaro	2014	9 yrs	29.6%	24,001
2	Renault	Trafic	2014	9 yrs	29.1%	11,560
3	Renault	Megane	2014	9 yrs	28.5%	10,037
4	Renault	Clio	2014	9 yrs	28.2%	36,841
5	Renault	Kangoo	2014	9 yrs	28.2%	4,697
6	Nissan	NV200	2014	9 yrs	27.5%	4,100
7	Citroen	Dispatch	2014	9 yrs	27.4%	4,675
8	Citroen	DS3	2014	9 yrs	27.1%	24,809
9	Citroen	Dispatch	2015	8 yrs	26.9%	5,759
10	Renault	Kangoo	2015	8 yrs	26.9%	5,630
11	Peugeot	Bipper	2014	9 yrs	26.8%	3,113
12	Mercedes-Benz	Citan	2014	9 yrs	26.6%	2,991
13	Renault	Clio	2015	8 yrs	26.6%	33,147
14	Renault	Trafic	2015	8 yrs	26.6%	15,945
15	Citroen	Nemo	2015	8 yrs	26.6%	2,444
16	Citroen	Nemo	2014	9 yrs	26.4%	2,327
17	Citroen	Relay	2014	9 yrs	26.1%	6,212
18	Vauxhall	Vivaro	2015	8 yrs	26.0%	33,086
19	Dacia	Sandero	2014	9 yrs	25.7%	17,167
20	Vauxhall	Movano	2014	9 yrs	25.7%	4,578

View detailed stats for some of the worst performers: Vauxhall Vivaro 2014 | Renault Clio 2014 | Citroen DS3 2014 | Dacia Sandero 2014

Across these 20 vehicles, the average fail rate is just under 27%, compared to roughly 16% for typical cars of the same age. In simple terms: if your car is on this list, it’s in the “high‑risk” group for its next MOT.

Vans dominate the worst offenders

The first thing that jumps out from this table is how many small and medium vans it contains:

Vauxhall Vivaro, Renault Trafic, Renault Kangoo, Nissan NV200
Citroen Dispatch, Peugeot Bipper, Citroen Nemo, Mercedes-Benz Citan, Citroen Relay
Vauxhall Movano

These are workhorses that spend their lives carrying tools, parcels and people, often on stop‑start delivery routes or building sites. That kind of usage takes a toll:

High mileages: A nine‑year‑old van can easily have double or triple the mileage of a similar‑age family hatchback.
Heavier loads: Constantly running near (or over) maximum payload strains suspension, brakes and tyres.
Mixed maintenance: Some vans are impeccably maintained by fleets; others are run on tight budgets and only see a garage once the MOT is due.

It’s not that these vans are “bad” designs. It’s that their typical working life pushes them much closer to MOT failure. As these vehicles filter out of company fleets and into private ownership, that risk comes with them.

If you’ve just bought an ex‑fleet Vivaro, Trafic or Dispatch as a cheap way into van life, this is your cue to pay extra attention before the MOT is due.

It’s not just vans: French superminis and budget hatchbacks

The list isn't all vans. A few small cars and superminis also appear:

Renault Clio (2014 and 2015)
Renault Megane (2014)
Citroen DS3 (2014)
Dacia Sandero (2014)

A couple of patterns explain why:

Age and price point: These are often bought as affordable used cars. By the time they’re eight or nine years old they may have had multiple owners, patchy service history and deferred maintenance.
Usage profile: Lots of short trips, cold starts and urban driving – which is hard on exhausts, brakes and clutches.
Cost‑sensitive owners: On lower‑value cars, it’s tempting to push tyres or worn suspension components “one more year”, which is exactly what MOT testers are there to prevent.

The important thing here is not that a 2014 Clio or Sandero is "unsafe by design", but that on average the ones turning up at MOT stations in 2023 were in worse condition than other cars of the same age. Even mainstream models like the 2015 Ford Fiesta or 2017 VW Golf can show issues at this age – check their stats to compare.

What tends to fail on these cars?

Looking across the failure patterns in our database, the high‑risk vehicles above share similar weak spots. They mirror the wider 2023 MOT statistics (see our complete breakdown of what fails most on MOTs), where:

Tyres and suspension together account for around 70% of all failures.
Brakes are responsible for roughly 1 in 5 failures.
The rest is spread across lighting, visibility (wipers/windscreen), steering, exhaust and corrosion.

For the vans on this list, the big themes are:

Tyres: Tread below the legal minimum (1.6mm), uneven wear from heavy loads and poor alignment, sidewall damage from kerbs.
Suspension: Worn wishbone bushes, tired shock absorbers, broken springs after years of carrying weight over speed bumps.
Brakes: Disc and pad wear, handbrake efficiency issues, especially on heavily used delivery vans.
Corrosion: Particularly around load areas, rear chassis sections and brake lines on older vans.

For the small cars and superminis, we most often see:

Tyres and brakes neglected because the car “doesn’t do many miles”.
Suspension joints and bushes worn out by years of potholed city driving.
Lighting and visibility faults – blown bulbs, cloudy headlamps, wiper blades that smear.

If your vehicle is on this list, that’s where to focus your attention before the MOT.

What this means if you own (or are buying) one

If you already own one of these vehicles:

Expect a tougher MOT: Statistically, your car or van is in a group that fails more often than similar‑age vehicles.
Budget for maintenance: Saving a little each month for tyres, brakes and suspension work is sensible – especially on a working van.
Use the data to plan: Look up your exact make/model/year on Pre MOT Check (for example, /check/citroen/ds3/2014) to see the top failure reasons and pass rate for your vehicle.

If you’re shopping for a used car or van:

Don’t rule these models out – but buy with your eyes open.
Check MOT history on the government site before you view, and compare it with our data for that exact year and model.
Use bad MOT history as a bargaining chip: Cars that have failed multiple times on the same issues may have been run on a tight budget.

In both cases, the key is preparation. You can’t change the statistics for your model, but you can make sure your individual car is in the best possible condition before test day.

Check your car’s MOT stats by number plate

How to reduce your MOT risk (especially for high‑risk cars)

Whatever you drive, these steps make a real difference. If your car is on the list above, they’re essential.

Check tyre tread and condition monthly
- Use a 20p coin or tread gauge to confirm at least 1.6mm across the central three‑quarters of the tyre.
- Look for cracks, bulges, cords showing and uneven wear. Replace tyres before they become borderline.
Listen for suspension knocks and rattles
- Any clunks over speed bumps, vague steering or a “floaty” feel on the motorway is a warning sign.
- Get a garage to inspect bushes, ball joints and shock absorbers if you notice a change.
Test the brakes regularly
- If the pedal feels spongy, the car pulls to one side under braking or you hear grinding/squealing, book it in.
- Handbrake travel that’s longer than usual can also be an early MOT fail warning.
Walk around and check every light
- Headlights (dipped and main), indicators, brake lights, number plate lights and fog lights.
- Bulbs are cheap; failing an MOT for a £5 bulb is frustrating and avoidable.
Fix visibility issues early
- Replace wiper blades that smear or judder.
- Repair chips or cracks in the driver’s line of sight on the windscreen.
Book a pre‑MOT check 2–4 weeks before the test
- Ask the garage for a “MOT style” inspection or use a Pre MOT Check checklist tailored to your make/model/year.
- That gives you time to price‑compare any repairs rather than approving work under MOT‑day pressure.

On Pre MOT Check, each detailed model/year MOT stats page turns the typical failures for your vehicle into a step‑by‑step checklist, so you know exactly what to look at before you hand over the keys.

Methodology & data sources

This study is based on the same dataset we use inside Pre MOT Check to power our risk scores and checklists:

Data source: DVSA MOT test results, 2023 (anonymised car and light van tests).
Tests analysed: 40.7 million MOT tests, grouped into 12,425 unique vehicle profiles.
Key metric: Fail rate = percentage of MOT tests for a given make/model/year that resulted in a Fail.
Age band: Vehicles that were 8 or 9 years old at the time of test (so mostly 2014–2015 registrations).
Sample size filter: Minimum of 2,000 MOT tests per vehicle profile included in this ranking.
Scope: Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles; motorcycles and heavy goods vehicles excluded.

We originally pulled these numbers as part of a content planning exercise for our “Tier 1” data study posts – designed to be strong enough for journalists to reference and for buyers to make real decisions from. The same approach underpins this live article.

We refresh our underlying database when new DVSA datasets are released, so over time the rankings will evolve as more recent MOT results come in. The individual model/year MOT stats pages will always show the latest figures we have for your vehicle.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which car is most likely to fail its MOT?

Based on our analysis of 40.7 million MOT tests, the Vauxhall Vivaro 2014 has the highest fail rate at 29.6%, followed by the Renault Trafic 2014 (29.1%) and Renault Megane 2014 (28.5%). These vehicles fail roughly twice as often as the average 8-9 year old car.

What is a bad MOT pass rate?

The average pass rate for 8-9 year old cars is approximately 84% (16% fail rate). Vehicles with pass rates below 75% (25%+ fail rate) should be considered high-risk and require extra pre-MOT attention. All 20 cars on this list have fail rates above 25%.

Are French cars unreliable at MOT?

French-brand vehicles (Renault, Citroen, Peugeot) represent 14 out of 20 cars on our highest-risk list. However, this is primarily due to high-mileage commercial vans and older budget models rather than all French cars being unreliable. Many individual French cars pass MOT without issue when properly maintained.

Should I avoid buying a car on this list?

Not necessarily. These statistics show average performance across thousands of tests. A well-maintained example with complete service history can still be reliable. Always check the individual vehicle's MOT history before buying and budget for potential maintenance on tyres, brakes and suspension.

Key takeaways

Vans dominate the "most likely to fail" list, thanks to high mileages, heavy loads and tough working lives.
French brands and Renault/Nissan alliance models appear repeatedly, particularly older Renault and Citroen small vans and superminis.
The vehicles on this list have around twice the fail rate of a typical 8–9‑year‑old car.
If you own one, you’re not doomed to fail – but you do need to be more proactive with tyres, suspension, brakes and basic maintenance.
Using a data‑driven tool like Pre MOT Check to see your exact model’s weak spots and follow a tailored pre‑MOT checklist is one of the easiest ways to avoid a failure slip.

To see how your car compares, browse all makes and models or search your registration on the Pre MOT Check home page. You’ll get instant MOT statistics and a checklist tailored to your vehicle.