How MOT Fail Rates Change as Cars Age

Everyone knows older cars are more likely to fail their MOT – but how much more likely, and at what age does the risk really start to climb?

In our other MOT data studies, we’ve zoomed in on specific models:

This time we’re stepping back and looking at the age vs reliability curve across the whole UK car parc. Using DVSA data, we’ve mapped how MOT fail rates change from a car’s very first test right through to 13 years old – and picked out the key milestones that matter if you’re buying or running a used car. All of the numbers below come from 2023 MOT tests, so think of this as a robust snapshot of the age curve rather than a decade‑long time series.

How we measured age and fail rates

At Pre MOT Check, we’ve built our platform on top of the DVSA’s anonymised MOT data. For this analysis we:

Used the 2023 DVSA MOT test results for cars and light vans.
Grouped tests by vehicle registration year, so a “2015” vehicle is typically 8 years old at a 2023 test.
Calculated the average MOT fail rate for each vehicle year.
Counted the total number of tests and distinct vehicles included per year to make sure each data point is robust.

That gives us a simple way to visualise how MOT risk climbs as cars age – regardless of make or model.

You can still drill down to your exact car on Pre MOT Check using our detailed MOT stats pages for each make, model and year, or browse everything on our MOT pass rate by make and model page. But this study is all about the big picture.

Year‑by‑year: how MOT fail rates climb with age

Here’s the age profile of MOT fail rates based on 2023 test data:

Vehicle Year	Age at 2023 Test	Average Fail Rate	Total Tests	Vehicles Tracked
2023	0 years	1.9%	437	2
2022	1 year	3.7%	18,669	47
2021	2 years	6.4%	74,250	249
2020	3 years	8.8%	2,067,264	1,789
2019	4 years	9.3%	2,933,731	1,009
2018	5 years	10.0%	2,959,099	575
2017	6 years	11.4%	3,139,177	522
2016	7 years	12.7%	3,351,058	539
2015	8 years	14.0%	3,284,159	490
2014	9 years	15.7%	3,036,658	484
2013	10 years	16.9%	2,724,817	491
2012	11 years	18.6%	2,393,242	466
2011	12 years	19.8%	2,197,259	428
2010	13 years	20.8%	2,137,479	422

A few clear patterns emerge:

Fail rates roughly double every 5 years as cars move from nearly new to early‑teens.
The first MOT at 3 years old has an average fail rate of around 9%.
By 10 years old, the average fail rate is close to 17%.
By 13 years old, around 1 in 5 tests ends in a fail.

In other words, age alone is a strong predictor of MOT risk – even before you look at brand or model.

The “first MOT cliff” at 3–4 years

New cars don’t need an MOT until they turn 3 years old, which is why you see a big jump in test volume at the 2020 vehicle year in the table above. That first MOT is often where hidden issues start to show up.

Why the jump?

Many cars have spent their first three years on short lease or PCP deals, often with high motorway mileage.
Consumables like tyres, wiper blades and sometimes brakes are starting to show wear.
Any underlying build or component issues that slipped through warranty are more likely to appear by year three.

The data shows:

At 2 years old (2021 vehicles), the average fail rate is 6.4%.
At 3 years old (2020 vehicles), it jumps to 8.8%.

That might not sound huge, but across millions of tests it represents a lot of unexpected fails for owners who assumed “it’s basically new, it’ll be fine”.

If you’re approaching your first MOT:

Use a pre‑MOT checklist focusing on tyres, lights, wipers and basic brakes.
Don’t assume low mileage means low risk; short, urban trips can be hard on exhausts and brakes.
If your model appears in our list of cars most likely to fail their next MOT, be doubly cautious.

When does age really start to matter?

Looking further along the curve, the story is one of steady, compounding wear:

Between 3 and 6 years old, fail rates creep from around 9% to 11–12%.
Between 6 and 9 years, they climb further to around 15–16%.
From 10 years onwards, they trend towards 20% and beyond.

What’s driving this?

Component fatigue: Suspension joints, bushings and springs have absorbed years of potholes and speed bumps. See our suspension failure analysis by manufacturer for brand-specific patterns.
Corrosion: Brake pipes, exhausts and structural areas have had more winters' worth of salt and moisture.
Maintenance variation: As cars get older and cheaper, some owners cut back on preventative maintenance and only fix what fails.

This doesn’t mean a 12‑year‑old car is automatically a bad buy. But on average, you’re stepping into a higher‑risk age bracket – which is exactly what shows up on MOT failure sheets.

The sweet spot for used cars: 4–6 years old

If you’re shopping used, you’re probably trying to balance three things:

Up‑front price – newer cars cost more.
Depreciation – almost all cars lose value fastest in their first 3–4 years.
Reliability at MOT – older cars fail more often, and repairs can be more expensive.

The age curve above suggests a clear “sweet spot”:

At 4–6 years old, average MOT fail rates sit between 9% and 11%.
By this point, the car has already taken the steepest depreciation hit.
Most examples are still on their first or second owner, often with a full service history.

This is exactly the age band we focused on in our most reliable used cars at MOT (age 6–9 years) study – where models like the Honda Jazz, Toyota Prius and Skoda Kodiaq stand out for their low fail rates.

Popular models in the sweet spot (4-6 years old in 2024-2025):

If you can afford a 4–6‑year‑old car from one of those consistently reliable models, you're stacking the odds heavily in your favour.

How to combine age data with model‑specific stats

Age is only half the story. Two 8‑year‑old cars can have very different MOT profiles depending on their make, model and how they’ve been looked after.

Here’s how to use Pre MOT Check to go deeper:

Start with age
Decide what age range fits your budget – for example 4–7 years old – using the curve above as a guide.
Compare models within that age band
Use Browse all vehicles to find the makes and models you’re interested in, then click through to the detailed MOT stats pages for the years you’re considering.
Check pass rate and test count
Look at the MOT pass rate and number of tests for each make/model/year. A higher pass rate with a healthy sample size is a good sign.
Look at what actually fails
Our model pages show the top 5 failure reasons for that specific car. If an older model has high failure rates for corrosion or suspension, factor that into your decision.
Cross‑check with national patterns
Compare your car’s weak spots with the national failure breakdown in our MOT failures deep‑dive. If both your model and the national stats say “tyres and brakes”, you know exactly where to focus.
Use the pre‑MOT checklist
Each model page turns its failure patterns into a tailored checklist you can use before every MOT – especially valuable as your car moves into higher‑risk age brackets.

Check your car’s MOT stats by number plate

Methodology & data sources

This study uses the same underlying dataset that powers Pre MOT Check:

Data source: DVSA MOT test results, 2023 (anonymised car and light van tests).
Tests analysed: 40.7 million MOT tests across the UK.
Grouping: Vehicles grouped by registration year, with age calculated as 2023 - vehicle year.
Metrics: Average MOT fail rate, total tests and number of distinct vehicles per year.
Scope: Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles; motorcycles and heavy goods vehicles are excluded.

Because we’re using a single year of DVSA data, this is a snapshot, not a decade‑long time series. However, with millions of tests per age band, the age‑related patterns are strong and broadly stable from one year to the next.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the average MOT fail rate for a 5-year-old car?

At 5 years old, cars have an average MOT fail rate of 10.0% based on 2023 DVSA data. This is below the overall average, making 4-6 year old cars a sweet spot for used car buyers balancing price and reliability.

At what age do cars fail MOT most?

Cars aged 10+ years have the highest fail rates, reaching 16.9% at 10 years and climbing to 20.8% by 13 years old. Roughly 1 in 5 cars over 10 years old will fail their MOT test.

Is a 10-year-old car a good buy?

A 10-year-old car can still be a good buy, but requires more careful inspection. At this age, the average fail rate is 16.9%. Focus on models with strong reliability records and check the vehicle's individual MOT history for patterns of suspension, corrosion or brake issues.

When is the first MOT due?

Cars need their first MOT at 3 years old (on or before the third anniversary of registration). At this age, approximately 8.8% of cars fail – often on tyres, lights, wipers and brakes that could have been checked beforehand.

Key takeaways

MOT fail rates increase steadily with age, roughly doubling between a car's first MOT and its early‑teens.
The first MOT at 3 years is a noticeable turning point, with nearly 1 in 10 cars failing – often for issues that could have been spotted in advance.
The 4–6‑year‑old window is a sweet spot where you avoid the steepest depreciation but still enjoy relatively low fail rates.
Once cars hit 10+ years old, around 1 in 5 MOT tests end in a fail, so proactive maintenance becomes much more important.
The smartest strategy is to combine age‑band data with model‑specific MOT stats and a tailored checklist, so you know both how old your car is and what it’s most likely to fail on.

To see how your car compares, browse all makes and models or search your registration on the Pre MOT Check home page. You’ll get instant MOT statistics and a checklist tailored to your vehicle.